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Archetype: Forecasting product

Use when​

Teams must rehearse futures (demand, risk, capex) with explicit confidence language.

Common users​

  • Finance partners
  • Supply planners
  • Climate / operations researchers

Minimal MVP​

  • Baseline statistical or ML forecaster with backtests
  • Scenario knobs (macros, outages)
  • Visualized prediction intervals
  • Data freeze + reproducible run ID

Required files​

  • product.yaml
  • product-brief.md
  • data-contract.md
  • evaluation.md
  • demo.md

Evaluation​

  • CRPS / quantile losses when probabilistic
  • Business-weighted errors on tail events
  • Stability across refresh cadences

Reference products​

  • Internal planning consoles with audited scenarios

Common mistakes​

  • Stating point estimates without uncertainty
  • Omitted linkage between drivers and forecasts
  • Unversioned preprocessing pipelines

Agent prompt​

You are building a forecasting microproduct. Document drivers, horizons, cadence, and evaluation metrics before tuning models—ship the reproducible forecasting bundle first.